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Variance explanations that have to show their work.

Flux Inquest refuses soft variance narratives. It ingests the whole flux workpaper packet, then allows only the portion tied to volume, price, mix, customer, timing, or account-specific evidence into the close binder.

Inquest verdictPARTIAL RELEASE · 4 supported drivers · 1 vague explanation refused

Variance packet

“Strong demand” is not a bridge.

The module decomposes movement into supported drivers, then rejects the leftovers that cannot be traced. Vague explanations do not become workpapers just because they sound plausible or because the binder needs a tidy story.

Whole flux packetP&L, bridges, support filesIngested

P&L fluxRevenue +38%Flagged

Sales volumeUnits +18%Supported

Price bridgeASP +9%Supported

Product mixEnterprise SKU shiftSupported

Customer cohortTop 3 customers +$412kSupported

Timing evidencePull-forward foundPartial

Management note"Strong demand"Too vague

Proof ledger4 tied drivers1 refusal

Release control

REFUSE VAGUE NOTE

The supported bridge can be included in the binder. The unsupported narrative stays out until management provides driver-level evidence and reviewer signoff.

FLUX HASH c71f0b445 driver tests1 explanation refused

Evidence drivers

A variance claim must attach to a real driver.

Flux Inquest separates supported explanations from confident filler. Each accepted claim names the source record and the driver category it proves.

VOLUME_TIE

Volume evidence

Unit shipments rose 18% and tie to order logs, billings, and delivery records. The explanation can cite volume only for the supported portion of the variance.

shipment_log_april.csv + invoice_register.csv

PRICE_TIE

Price evidence

Average selling price increased 9% after discount approvals changed for two enterprise contracts. The bridge ties to signed order forms.

price_bridge_q2.xlsx

MIX_TIE

Mix evidence

High-margin enterprise SKUs grew from 31% to 44% of sales. Flux Inquest accepts mix only because SKU-level support reconciles to revenue.

sku_mix_rollforward.csv

CUSTOMER_TIE

Customer evidence

Three named customers explain $412,000 of the increase. Each customer claim links to invoice, contract, and collection evidence.

customer_bridge_april.xlsx

TIMING_PARTIAL

Timing evidence

A $96,000 pull-forward from May is supported, but a second timing claim lacks delivery proof. The unsupported portion is refused.

cutoff_review_AR-20491.pdf

Proof ledger

The bridge gets a status by account.

Area	Variance	Status	Evidence finding
Revenue	+$684k	`SUPPORTED`	Volume, price, mix, customer, and partial timing bridge
Gross margin	+420 bps	`SUPPORTED`	SKU mix and vendor cost schedules tie
Sales commissions	+$73k	`UNSUPPORTED`	Explanation says hiring ramp; payroll roster does not tie
Hosting cost	-$41k	`CONTRADICTED`	Usage report increased while cost decreased
Professional fees	+$58k	`VAGUE`	Consulting activity cited without invoice or SOW support
Bad debt	+$22k	`PROVEN`	Reserve schedule ties to aged receivables

Refusal rules

No unsupported storytelling.

Volume

Accept only when units, shipments, orders, or usage reconcile to the variance.

Price

Accept only when rate cards, discounts, contracts, or ASP bridges support the claim.

Mix

Accept only when SKU, product, channel, or margin mix ties to source records.

Customer

Accept only when named customers explain the movement with traceable evidence.

Timing

Accept only when cutoff, billing, delivery, or accrual support proves period movement.

Vague claims

Refuse explanations like market strength, seasonality, normalization, or timing without proof.

Flux Inquest provides workpaper support for review. It does not provide an audit opinion, legal opinion, accounting opinion, or assurance conclusion.

Copyable flux variance packet

The model has to bridge the variance, not decorate it.

Paste this case into a general LLM and compare whether it separates supported drivers from unsupported narrative. LedgerProof only releases the proven pieces and refuses binder language where evidence is missing.

Release decision

PARTIAL RELEASE / REFUSE VAGUE NOTE. Supported driver claims can enter the binder; unsupported timing and other vague notes stay blocked.

Release gate

Only source-backed driver language may export. Unsupported timing, commission, hosting, and professional-fee narratives remain outside the close binder.

Blockers

Timing claim lacks in-period delivery proof, commission explanation does not tie to roster, hosting explanation contradicts usage, professional-fee note lacks invoice or SOW support.

Missing evidence

Delivery or cutoff correction for timing, reviewer signoff, commission roster-to-GL bridge, cloud usage-to-cost analysis, SOW and invoice support for professional fees.

Generic LLM failure

A generic model often rewrites 'strong demand' into a polished narrative instead of allocating the variance only to source-backed volume, price, mix, customer, and timing drivers.

LEDGERPROOF FLUX INQUEST TEST PACKET
Company: Northstar Robotics, Inc.
Close period: April 2026
Task: Ingest the whole variance workpaper packet and decide which explanations can pass the close binder release gate. Return release decision, accepted driver claims, refused explanations, missing evidence, allowed binder language, and recovery actions. Do not provide assurance.

Packet manifest:
- Workpapers included: P&L flux, revenue driver bridge, SKU mix rollforward, customer bridge, timing cutoff schedule, commission analysis, hosting usage report, professional-fee support
- Required release gate: narrative may enter the binder only to the extent it ties to source-backed volume, price, mix, customer, timing, or account-specific evidence
- Requested export: reviewer-ready flux packet

P&L flux:
- Revenue March 2026: $1,800,900
- Revenue April 2026: $2,484,900
- Variance: +$684,000 / +38.0%
- Management note: "Revenue increased because demand was strong and the team executed well."

Attached driver evidence:
1. Volume bridge: March units 1,020; April units 1,204; unit increase explains $258,000. Ties to shipment_log_april.csv and invoice_register_april.csv.
2. Price bridge: ASP increased from $1,765 to $1,924; price movement explains $191,000. Ties to signed order forms for two enterprise contracts.
3. Mix bridge: Enterprise SKU share increased from 31% to 44%; mix explains $139,000. Ties to sku_mix_rollforward.csv.
4. Customer bridge: Customers Atlas, Boreal, and Coda explain $412,000 of the revenue increase. Each has invoice, contract, and collection support.
5. Timing bridge: $96,000 of April revenue was pulled forward from May. Invoice AR-20491 for $38,400 has delivery proof dated May 3; no April delivery evidence. A second timing claim for $57,600 has no delivery proof attached.

Other fluxes:
- Gross margin: +420 bps. Ties to SKU mix and vendor cost schedules.
- Sales commissions: +$73,000. Explanation says hiring ramp, but payroll roster does not tie to commission expense.
- Hosting cost: -$41,000. Explanation says cloud efficiency, but usage report increased 22%.
- Professional fees: +$58,000. Explanation says normal timing. No SOW or invoice support.

Reviewer status:
- Revenue driver bridge has preparer support but no reviewer signoff for the timing exception.
- Sales commissions, hosting, and professional fees have no owner recovery action attached.

Requested output schema:
- release_decision
- release_gate
- accepted_driver_claims
- refused_explanations
- missing_evidence
- allowed_binder_language
- recovery_actions
- why_a_generic_llm_might_fail

Rejected explanations

The system is allowed to say: not enough.

These notes remain outside the binder until the preparer ties them to volume, price, mix, customer, or timing support.

Revenue increased because demand was strong.

Margins improved due to operational discipline.

Professional fees were higher because of normal timing.

Commissions changed because the sales team was active.

LLM test prompt

Ingest this whole flux packet. Revenue increased 38% and management says 'strong demand.' Which language can pass the binder release gate?

Paste LLM answer0 chars

ObservedWAITING

Expected LedgerProof posture

REFUSE VAGUE NOTE unless volume, price, mix, customer, timing, and reviewer evidence supports the exact binder language.

Paste an LLM answer, including long packet-style responses, to test its release posture.

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Live deterministic API runner

Run the flux gate.

Edit the variance packet and the deterministic runner emits explanation posture, blockers, refusals, and a LUNA-style audit trail.

API manifest

POST /api/alchemist/runLoading manifestFetching API manifest metadata

Source packet2,604 charsUpload packetAccepted: .txt, .csv, .json, .mdChoose fileDrop or choose TXT, CSV, JSON, or MD under 1 MB.

SEC ticker seedPacket required

This model needs a deal, segment, or accounting packet; a single ticker is not enough evidence.

Packet text

P&L flux:
- Revenue March 2026: $1,800,900
- Revenue April 2026: $2,484,900
- Variance: +$684,000 / +38.0%
- Management note: "Revenue increased because demand was strong and the team executed well."

Verdict

Running deterministic API...

Running deterministic API

Computing verdict, blockers, refusals, metadata, and audit trail.

Bring your own packet

Bring your own flux packet.

Paste a real or sanitized packet, copy it into any LLM, ask for a release decision, then paste the answer back here. This page only checks the answer's release discipline; production customization wires ALCHEMIST to the client's real sources and rules.

Your packet0 charsLLM answer0 chars

ObservedWAITING

Expected ALCHEMIST posture

Accept only evidence-backed variance drivers; refuse vague explanations, unsupported narrative, missing reviewer evidence, and audit-ready language when proof is missing.

Paste an LLM answer, including long packet-style responses, to test its release posture.

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