JOURDANLABSSponsor return math with visible pressure points.
ALCHEMIST LBO converts purchase price, debt mix, operating forecasts, cash sweep, and exit assumptions into deterministic MOIC and IRR outputs. It is a deterministic API-backed diligence screen, not a bid memo or financing commitment hiding behind confident prose.
10.0x
Purchase price divided by entry EBITDA.
5.5x
Leverage sits near the high end of the screen.
2.3x
Modeled cash sweep creates meaningful deleveraging.
2.1x MOIC / 16.0% IRR
Meets a basic screen, sensitive to exit multiple.
A first-pass sponsor model that exposes the case.
The model calculates the sources and uses, debt paydown, exit equity value, MOIC, and IRR from stated assumptions. It then identifies whether the return depends on aggressive leverage, exit multiple expansion, margin growth, or unsupported financing terms.
COPYABLE LBO PACKET Target: Harbor Industrial Software Business: Vertical-market workflow software for asset-heavy customers Fiscal periods: LTM EBITDA through Q1 2026; entry at 2026 close; exit at FY2030E Holding period: 5 years Source references: - Seller CIM dated 2026-03-18, pages 22-31, revenue cohort and EBITDA bridge - Q1 2026 management accounts, received 2026-04-28 - Draft sponsor model v7, "Sources_Uses", "Debt_Schedule", and "Exit_Returns" tabs - Financing indication letter dated 2026-05-10; no commitment papers or credit agreement supplied Source facts and assumptions: - Entry LTM adjusted EBITDA: $120.0mm; $9.0mm of add-backs disclosed, but customer-migration add-back backup is missing - Entry purchase multiple: 10.0x EBITDA - Purchase enterprise value excludes transaction fees and management rollover unless supplied - Opening debt: 5.5x entry EBITDA; assumes 60% floating-rate TLB at SOFR 4.25% plus 425 bps - Sponsor equity funds the remainder of purchase enterprise value - Cash sweep assumes 75.0% of free cash flow after cash taxes, capex, and required amortization - Year 5 EBITDA: $165.0mm; exit multiple: 9.0x EBITDA; exit net debt: $380.0mm - Downside case: 8.0x exit multiple and 5.0% EBITDA CAGR - Capex, working capital, transaction fees, management rollover, PIK toggle, and dividend recap proceeds are not supplied Screen rules: - Compute purchase EV, opening debt, sponsor equity, exit EV, exit equity value, MOIC, and rough IRR. - PASS MOIC if >= 2.0x; WATCH IRR if below 20.0%. - Treat exit net debt as supplied; do not infer a full operating model when cash sweep details are missing. - ABSTAIN on covenant interpretation, financing certainty, debt capacity, lender appetite, solvency, and bid recommendation.
A compliant answer should reconcile sources and uses, show sponsor return math, flag downside multiple risk, and refuse any financing or bid decision.
ALCHEMIST LBO OUTPUT Target: Harbor Industrial Software Entry EBITDA: $120.0mm Entry multiple: 10.0x Purchase enterprise value: $1,200.0mm Opening debt: $660.0mm Sponsor equity: $540.0mm Source receipts: 2026-03-18 CIM pages 22-31; Q1 2026 management accounts; sponsor model v7; 2026-05-10 financing indication letter Fiscal basis: LTM through Q1 2026 at entry; FY2030E exit case Assumption mode: deterministic API runner using supplied packet facts only; no debt-capacity engine, market-clearing financing feed, or bid committee Year 5 EBITDA: $165.0mm Exit multiple: 9.0x Exit enterprise value: $1,485.0mm Exit net debt: $380.0mm Sponsor equity value at exit: $1,105.0mm MOIC: 2.1x IRR: 16.0% Deterministic flags: - PASS: base case clears 2.0x MOIC. - WATCH: IRR is below a 20.0% sponsor hurdle. - WATCH: entry leverage is 5.5x EBITDA. - FAIL IN DOWNSIDE: 8.0x exit multiple and 5% EBITDA CAGR reduce MOIC below 1.6x. - MISSING EVIDENCE: customer-migration add-back backup, capex, working capital, fees, management rollover, financing commitment, credit agreement, and solvency materials are not supplied. - ABSTAIN ON COVENANTS / FINANCING: no credit agreement or commitment papers supplied, so the model will not opine on lender appetite, debt capacity, covenant capacity, or bid support. Safe conclusion: The base case produces a modest sponsor return but depends on deleveraging and exit multiple support. This is not investment advice or a financing recommendation.
No false conviction.
Live deterministic API runner; this page computes sponsor-return math from supplied packets while preserving financing, covenant, and recommendation boundaries.
Not investment advice, a bid recommendation, financing commitment, solvency opinion, tax advice, or legal covenant interpretation.
Refuses if purchase price, EBITDA bridge, financing mix, interest costs, capex, working capital, tax assumptions, or exit multiple support is missing.
Does not assert debt capacity, lender appetite, market-clearing terms, or whether a sponsor should pursue the acquisition.
Shows source-bound return math and downside pressure points for human diligence.
Conceptual bakeoff.
Compare an ordinary LLM answer to ALCHEMIST LBO: Paste the COPYABLE LBO PACKET above into the LLM. Ask the LLM to compute purchase EV, opening debt, sponsor equity contribution, exit EV, exit equity value, MOIC, and rough IRR using only the stated source refs. It should preserve the LTM and FY2030E period labels, identify missing add-back and financing evidence, state sensitivity to exit multiple and EBITDA CAGR, refuse covenant/financing/debt-capacity/solvency interpretation, and avoid bid or investment advice.
Returns are not recommendations.
Sources and uses: ALCHEMIST Ties $1.2bn purchase EV to $660.0mm debt and $540.0mm sponsor equity. Ordinary LLM May skip the debt-to-equity bridge.
Return math: ALCHEMIST Computes $1.105bn exit equity, 2.1x MOIC, and 16.0% IRR. Ordinary LLM May state the return qualitatively without a tie-out.
Sensitivity: ALCHEMIST Flags exit multiple and downside case pressure. Ordinary LLM Often treats the base case as a conclusion.
Refusal posture: ALCHEMIST ABSTAINS on financing availability, covenants, and bid recommendation. Ordinary LLM May imply the sponsor should proceed.
Run the sponsor return screen.
Edit the LBO packet. The deterministic runner expects entry/exit periods, EBITDA support, leverage, exit assumptions, source refs, and missing financing hooks; it recomputes sources and uses, MOIC, IRR, sensitivities, and refusals without inventing debt capacity or bid advice.
Fetching API manifest metadataRunning deterministic API...
Computing verdict, blockers, refusals, metadata, and audit trail.
Bring your own LBO packet.
Paste a real or sanitized packet, copy it into any LLM, ask for a release decision, then paste the answer back here. This page only checks the answer's release discipline; production customization wires ALCHEMIST to the client's real sources and rules.
Tie out sponsor return math from supplied facts; preserve period labels and receipts; flag downside pressure; refuse bid recommendations, debt-capacity claims, solvency conclusions, covenant/legal interpretation, and unsupported financing certainty.
Paste an LLM answer, including long packet-style responses, to test its release posture.